Saturday, May 2, 2020

777: Number of cases linked to population density in India: 79 Myth and Facts


In print: IJCP May Issue
CMAAO CORONA FACTS and MYTH BUSTER 79

777: Number of cases linked to population density in India

 

Dr K K Aggarwal: President Confederation of Medical Associations of Asia and Oceania, HCFI and Past National President IMA
And Dr Sanchita Sharma: Editor IJCP


Density of population has a direct association with the number of COVID 19 positive cases. The chances of infection spreading are greater in densely populated areas. But, a place can have dense population, yet people can isolate, work remotely and practice social distancing. Density of population becomes a risk factor for spread of infection where people live in close confined spaces and therefore are in close contact with one another. Social distancing becomes more difficult or practically impossible in such places.


In India in states with average population density of 1185 /sk km, average number of cases were 2048.

These when compared to states with population density of 909/ sk km the number of cases were 34.6.

In these two sates (Chandigarh and Pondicherry) with high population density were taken out the Average Density of other states were 217 and the average number of cases were 35 


This shows that high density states have larger number of cases and low density states have significantly less number of cases. The exceptions are  Chandigarh and Pondicherry which shows disciplined social distancing in high density states can make a difference.

“Cruise ships are examples of dense mixing of many persons in a confined space over a relatively long period. The density of the group of people on board the COVID-19-infected Diamond Princess, quarantined in Yokohama earlier this year, was estimated around four times higher than that in Wuhan, as was also the R0 before the onset of countermeasures” (J Travel Med. 2020 Mar 29).

The 40-day lockdown, has been extended for two weeks till 17th May. The districts have been categorized into Red (hotspot), Green and Orange Zones based on their risk profiling.

Green Zones will be districts with either zero confirmed cases till date; or, no confirmed case in the last 21 days, while districts will be placed in Red Zones depending on the total number of active cases, doubling rate of confirmed cases, extent of testing and surveillance feedback from the districts.

All metros and major cities in the country have been placed in the Red Zone (hotspots).

Population density according to the 2011 census of India:

Delhi: 11,312/ sq km
Kolkata: 24,252/ sq km 
Chennai: 26,903/sq km
Mumbai: 20,482/ sq km
Hyderabad: 10,477/sq km
Indore: 25,170/sq km
Lucknow: 1,815/sq km
Surat: 14,000/ sq km 
Ahmedabad: 12,000/ sq km
Jaipur: 6500/sq km
Chandigarh:  9252/sq km

Green Zone

Goa: 394/ sq km
Arunachal Pradesh: 17/ sq km
Manipur: 122/sq km

Thirty out of 33 districts in Assam are in the green zone; no red zone. The population density in Assam is 397/sq km. Puducherry has a population density of 2547/sq km; three out of 4 districts are green zones; there is no red zone.





Number of cases linked to population density in India: Migrant decongestion is the answer

State
                                                                       Cases
Deaths
Density/ Km
Arunachal Pradesh
1
0
17
Mizoram
1
0
52
Manipur
2
0
122
Tripura
2
0
350
Goa
7
0
394
Puducherry
8
0
2598
Meghalaya
12
1
132
Ladakh
22
0
2.8
Andaman and Nicobar Islands
33
0
46
Chhattisgarh
38
0
189
Himachal Pradesh
40
1
123
Assam
42
1
397
Uttarakhand
55
0
189
Chandigarh
56
0
9252
Jharkhand
107
3
414
Odisha
128
1
269
Haryana
310
3
573
Punjab
357
19
550
Bihar
403
2
1102
Kerala
496
4
859
Karnataka
557
21
319
Jammu and Kashmir
581
8
124
West Bengal
758
22
1029
Telengana
1012
26
312
Andhra Pradesh
1403
31
308
Tamil Nadu
2162
27
555
Uttar Pradesh
2203
39
828
Rajasthan
2438
51
201
Madhya Pradesh
2660
130
236
Delhi
3439
56
11297
Gujarat
4082
197
308
Maharashtra
9915
432
365


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