In
print: IJCP May Issue
CMAAO
CORONA FACTS and MYTH BUSTER 79
777: Number of cases linked to
population density in India
Dr K K Aggarwal: President Confederation
of Medical Associations of Asia and Oceania, HCFI and Past National President
IMA
And Dr Sanchita Sharma: Editor IJCP
Density of population has a direct association with
the number of COVID 19 positive cases. The chances of infection spreading are
greater in densely populated areas. But, a place can have dense population, yet
people can isolate, work remotely and practice social distancing. Density of
population becomes a risk factor for spread of infection where people live in
close confined spaces and therefore are in close contact with one another.
Social distancing becomes more difficult or practically impossible in such
places.
In India
in states with average population density of 1185 /sk km, average number of
cases were 2048.
These
when compared to states with population density of 909/ sk km the number of
cases were 34.6.
In these
two sates (Chandigarh and Pondicherry) with high population density were taken
out the Average Density of other states were 217 and the average number of
cases were 35
This shows that high density states have larger
number of cases and low density states have significantly less number of cases.
The exceptions are Chandigarh and Pondicherry which
shows disciplined social distancing in high density states can make a
difference.
“Cruise ships are examples of dense mixing of many
persons in a confined space over a relatively long period. The density of the
group of people on board the COVID-19-infected Diamond Princess, quarantined in
Yokohama earlier this year, was estimated around four times higher than that in
Wuhan, as was also the R0 before the onset of countermeasures” (J Travel
Med. 2020 Mar 29).
The 40-day lockdown, has been extended for two
weeks till 17th May. The districts have been categorized into Red (hotspot),
Green and Orange Zones based on their risk profiling.
Green Zones will be districts with either zero
confirmed cases till date; or, no confirmed case in the last 21 days, while
districts will be placed in Red Zones depending on the total number of active
cases, doubling rate of confirmed cases, extent of testing and surveillance
feedback from the districts.
All metros and major cities in the country have
been placed in the Red Zone (hotspots).
Population density according to the 2011 census of India:
Delhi: 11,312/ sq km
Kolkata: 24,252/ sq km
Chennai: 26,903/sq km
Mumbai: 20,482/ sq km
Hyderabad: 10,477/sq km
Indore: 25,170/sq km
Lucknow: 1,815/sq km
Surat: 14,000/ sq km
Ahmedabad: 12,000/ sq km
Jaipur: 6500/sq km
Chandigarh: 9252/sq km
Green Zone
Goa: 394/ sq km
Arunachal Pradesh: 17/ sq km
Manipur: 122/sq km
Thirty out of 33 districts in Assam are in the
green zone; no red zone. The population density in Assam is 397/sq km. Puducherry has a
population density of 2547/sq km; three out of 4 districts are green
zones; there is no red zone.
Number of cases linked to population density in India: Migrant
decongestion is the answer
State
|
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Density/ Km
|
|
Arunachal Pradesh
|
1
|
0
|
17
|
|
Mizoram
|
1
|
0
|
52
|
|
Manipur
|
2
|
0
|
122
|
|
Tripura
|
2
|
0
|
350
|
|
Goa
|
7
|
0
|
394
|
|
Puducherry
|
8
|
0
|
2598
|
|
Meghalaya
|
12
|
1
|
132
|
|
Ladakh
|
22
|
0
|
2.8
|
|
Andaman and Nicobar Islands
|
33
|
0
|
46
|
|
Chhattisgarh
|
38
|
0
|
189
|
|
Himachal Pradesh
|
40
|
1
|
123
|
|
Assam
|
42
|
1
|
397
|
|
Uttarakhand
|
55
|
0
|
189
|
|
Chandigarh
|
56
|
0
|
9252
|
|
Jharkhand
|
107
|
3
|
414
|
|
Odisha
|
128
|
1
|
269
|
|
Haryana
|
310
|
3
|
573
|
|
Punjab
|
357
|
19
|
550
|
|
Bihar
|
403
|
2
|
1102
|
|
Kerala
|
496
|
4
|
859
|
|
Karnataka
|
557
|
21
|
319
|
|
Jammu and Kashmir
|
581
|
8
|
124
|
|
West Bengal
|
758
|
22
|
1029
|
|
Telengana
|
1012
|
26
|
312
|
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
1403
|
31
|
308
|
|
Tamil Nadu
|
2162
|
27
|
555
|
|
Uttar Pradesh
|
2203
|
39
|
828
|
|
Rajasthan
|
2438
|
51
|
201
|
|
Madhya Pradesh
|
2660
|
130
|
236
|
|
Delhi
|
3439
|
56
|
11297
|
|
Gujarat
|
4082
|
197
|
308
|
|
Maharashtra
|
9915
|
432
|
365
|
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