Showing posts with label italy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label italy. Show all posts

Thursday, June 11, 2020

121 CMAAO CORONA FACTS and MYTH BUSTER: Italy like situation


121 CMAAO CORONA FACTS and MYTH BUSTER:  Italy like situation

Dr K K Aggarwal
President CMAAO


945: Over Half of People Tested in Italian City of Bergamo Have COVID-19 Antibodies

A sample survey has shown that more than half the residents of the northern Italian city of Bergamo have COVID-19 antibodies. Of 9,965 residents who had blood tests between April 23 and June 3, 57% had antibodies indicating they had come into contact with the coronavirus. The city health authorities said the sample was "sufficiently broad" to be a reliable indicator of how many people had been infected in Bergamo, which became the epicentre of Italy's outbreak.

Antibodies were found in just over 30% of the 10,404 health operators tested although they are generally considered more at risk than other people.

In a report released in early May, national statistics institute ISTAT said the number of deaths in Bergamo was up 568% in March compared with the 2015-2019 average, making it Italy's worst-hit city in terms of deaths. Its hospitals were soon overwhelmed by infected people and, with morgues unable to keep up, convoys of army trucks carrying away the dead became a chilling symbol of the global pandemic.

Bergamo province has reported 13,609 coronavirus cases. Italy has reported almost 34,000 coronavirus deaths, with some 235,000 confirmed cases. The Lombardy region, which includes Bergamo, has registered over 16,000 deaths. Reuters

Lesson: In an Italy like situation 50% of the population is expected to get infected.



Thursday, May 28, 2020

CMAAO CORONA FACTS and MYTH BUSTER 107 Strategic Lessons



CMAAO CORONA FACTS and MYTH BUSTER 107 Strategic Lessons


929:  Lessons learnt from coronavirus strategies
Dr K K Aggarwal
President CMAAO

With inputs from Dr Monica Vasudev

1.     Italy reached nearly 100,000 Covid-19 cases and more than 10,000 deaths by March 29, becoming the deadliest epicentre in the pandemic. They were slow to implement strict social distancing measures and, even once officials began to institute social distancing as Covid-19 cases began to spike, the public did not seem to respond to government directives with urgency. Italy suffered from “a systematic failure to absorb and act upon existing information rapidly and effectively rather than a complete lack of knowledge of what ought to be done.”

2.     In early days it was common to see officials sceptical of the Covid-19 threat pointing to low fatality numbers and asking why there was panic, given how many people die of the seasonal flu every year. But the coronavirus spreads stealthily, with those who contract it not showing symptoms for days, and the full gravity of their illness not becoming clear until a week or two after infection.

Most political leaders of the world who have not faced the taste of SARS and MERS earlier did not act pre-emptively despite evidence suggesting such delays could increase the number of cases. State-of-emergency declarations were shrugged off by the public and political leaders.


3.     Threats such as pandemics that evolve in a non-linear fashion (they start small but exponentially intensify) are especially tricky to confront because of the challenges of rapidly interpreting what is happening in real time. The most effective time to take strong action is extremely early, when the threat appears to be small — or even before there are any cases. But if the intervention actually works, it will appear in retrospect as if the strong actions were an overreaction. This is a game many politicians don’t want to play. The first step to a better pandemic response is acknowledging the current situation.

When three cases appeared in Kerala India between 31st January and 2nd February, even India did not close the International boarders thinking it to be a Kerala local [problem. They only acted on 22nd March.

4.     Ignoring and not anticipating the problem of migrants: Italy started small with its coronavirus containment and only expanded it as the scale of the problem revealed itself. The country started with a targeted strategy: Certain areas with a lot of infections were designated as “red zones.” Within the red zones, there were progressive lockdowns depending on the severity of the outbreak in the area. The restrictions were only broadened to the whole country when these measures did not stop the virus’s spread.

In fact, these limited lockdowns made it worse. Because the coronavirus transmits so silently, the “facts on the ground” (number of cases, deaths, etc.) didn’t actually capture the full scale of the problem. Once partial lockdowns went into effect, people fled to less restricted parts of the country — and they may have unwittingly taken the virus with them.

The selective approach might have inadvertently facilitated the spread of the virus. Consider the decision to initially lock down some regions but not others. When the decree announcing the closing of northern Italy became public, it touched off a massive exodus to southern Italy, undoubtedly spreading the virus to regions where it had not been present.

Even in India after the 3rd lock down was partially lifted the migrants caused a surge in the cases.  Between 3.5 to 7% of them became positive and carried the infection to other states.

5.     There will be a surge after the lockdown is lifted: The disease will continue to spread with no lockdown, social distancing, or other intervention with no change in transmission rate. R0= 2.66

If there is moderate lockdown, it will reduce transmission to R0 of 2 during lockdown period, then transmission will resume at R0 of 2.4.

In Hard Lockdown, there will be reduced to R0 of 1.5 during lockdown period, then transmission will resume at R0 of 2.4.

And with Hard Lockdown and Continued Social Distancing/Isolating Cases there will be reduced transmission to R0 of 1.5 during lockdown period, then, through social distancing regulations and isolation of symptomatic individuals will resume at R0 of 2.

6.     Uniform national policy vs state policies: Both India and USA did not declare a public health national emergency and had asked states to take care of the problem. Trump did issue his recommendation that people stay home for 15 days to stop the Covid-19 spread, but he did not renew the call. States took different approaches: some, like New York, California, and Washington locked down completely. Others, like Florida, were reluctant to take the same step.

7.     Lockdown will only postpone the worse: Italy’s experience indicates that truncated social distancing periods and a mishmash of social distancing policies across different interlocked areas only prolonged and deepened the problem.

8.     Public ignorance: The message that personal social distancing and masking will never be lifted for the next few years has not been understood by the masses as yet.

9.     Having two strategies in the same country: The experiences of Lombardy and Veneto, two neighbouring Italian regions that took two different strategies for their coronavirus response and saw two different results, are instructive. Lombardy has 10 million people, and it has endured 35,000 Covid-19 cases and about 5,000 deaths; Veneto is home to 5 million people, but it has seen just 7,000 cases and fewer than 300 deaths. Its outbreak is a fraction the size of its neighbour’s.

This is what Veneto did to successfully control the outbreak:
Extensive testing: People with symptoms and people who were asymptomatic were tested whenever possible.

Proactive tracing: If somebody tested positive, everybody they live with was tested or, if tests weren’t available, they were required to self-quarantine.
Emphasis on home diagnosis and care: Health care providers would actually go to the homes of people with suspected Covid-19 cases to collect samples so they could be tested, keeping them from being exposed or exposing other people by visiting a hospital or doctor’s office.

Monitoring of medical personnel and other vulnerable workers: Doctors, nurses, caregivers at nursing homes, and even grocery store cashiers and pharmacists were monitored closely for possible infection and given ample protective gear to limit exposure.

Lombardy, on the other hand, was much less aggressive on all of those fronts: testing, proactive tracing, home care, and monitoring workers. Hospitals there were overwhelmed, while Veneto’s have been comparatively spared. And yet it took weeks upon weeks for Lombardy to adopt the same strategies that were already working next door in Veneto:

10.  Not reporting the proper data or underreporting the data for political gains: Importance of good data — the raw numbers themselves — which were lacking in the early days of Italy’s outbreak. These figures should focus on the important metrics like tests conducted and hospitalizations. The data is often downplayed by most countries. Every one wants gto show that they have the best results. .

Wuhan Update: In two weeks, the Chinese health authorities managed to administer 6.5 million tests for the coronavirus in Wuhan, the city where the pandemic began and where six new infections detected two weeks ago raised fears of a second wave of contagion.  200 cases were found, mostly people who showed no symptoms. This study demonstrates that for every, one symptomatic case there are 33 asymptomatic cases.

Actual Cases (1.7 million: 10 times the number of confirmed cases)
New York State conducted an antibody testing study
12.3% of the population COVID-19 antibodies as of May 1, 2020.
The survey developed a baseline infection rate by testing 15,103 people at grocery stores and community centers across the state over the preceding two weeks. The study provides a breakdown by county, race (White 7%, Asian 11.1%, multi/none/other 14.4%, Black 17.4%, Latino/Hispanic 25.4%), and age, among other variables. 
19.9% of the population of New York City had COVID-19 antibodies.
With a population of 8,398,748 people in NYC, this percentage would indicate that 1,671,351 people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and had recovered as of May 1 in New York City. The number of confirmed cases reported as of May 1 by New York City was 166,883, more than 10 times less.

11. Actual deaths are twice the number of reported deaths

As of May 1, New York City reported 13,156 confirmed deaths and 5,126 probable deaths (deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate but no laboratory test performed), for a total of 18,282 deaths

The CDC on May 11 released its "Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020" in which it calculated an estimate of actual COVID-19 deaths in NYC by analyzing the "excess deaths" (defined as "the number of deaths above expected seasonal baseline levels, regardless of the reported cause of death") and found that, in addition to the confirmed and probable deaths reported by the city, there were an estimated 5,293 more deaths to be attributed. After adjusting for the previous day (May 1), we get 5,148 additional deaths, for a total of actual deaths of 13,156 confirmed + 5,126 probable + 5,148 additional excess deaths calculated by CDC = 23,430 actual COVID-19 deaths as of May 1, 2020 in New York City.

Mortality Rate (23k / 8.4M = 0.28% CMR to date) and Probability of Dying

As of May 1, 23,430 people are estimated to have died out of a total population of 8,398,748 in New York City. This corresponds to a 0.28% crude mortality rate to date, or 279 deaths per 100,000 population, or 1 death every 358 people.

Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR)

Actual Cases with an outcome as of May 1 = estimated actual recovered (1,671,351) + estimated actual deaths (23,430) = 1,694,781.
Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = Deaths / Cases = 23,430 / 1,694,781 = 1.4% (1.4% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 have a fatal outcome, while 98.6% recover).

12.  Admitting covid patients in non covid hospitals instead of managing them at home: Home admissions: Coronavirus can hit "like a tsunami". In one hospital in Italy more than 100 out of 120 people admitted with the virus developed pneumonia. Doctors became  patients. Opening separate COVID-19 blocks to admit and treat the infected patients made the hospital hot spots. Delhi is doing the same mistake that Italy made.

Do not allow hospitals becoming “the main” source of Covid-19 transmission. The related coronavirus illness MERS also has high transmission rates within hospitals, as did SARS during its 2003 epidemic.
Major hospitals in Italy such as Bergamo’s themselves became sources of [coronavirus] infection with Covid-19 patients indirectly transmitting infections to non-Covid-19 patients. Ambulances and infected personnel, especially those without symptoms, carry the contagion both to other patients and back into the community.

Covid-19 patients started arriving and the rate of infection in other patients soared. That is one thing that probably led to the disaster in Italy.
Western health care systems have been built around the concept of patient-cantered care. But a pandemic requires “community-cantered care.”. Broader good overrules over the individual good.









Wednesday, February 26, 2020

41 countries, 503 new cases and 12 deaths outside china yesterday, cases in eight countries been traced to Iran. Expected total deaths 4095.



CMAAO Update 26th February on COVID-19

Only 20% will have symptoms and will go for testing, rest may self-quarantine, 15% of serious will die.  In Iran 16 died of 95 tested means they are only testing serious patients.

41 countries, 503 new cases and 12 deaths outside china yesterday, cases in eight countries been traced to Iran. Expected total deaths 4095. From Canary Islands hotel cases have spread to Spain, France, Austria, Croatia and Switzerland.

Dr KK Aggarwal
President CMAA), HCFI AND Past National President IMA

COVID 19 SUTRA

Possibly behaves like SARS; causes mild illness in 82%, severe illness in 15%, critical illness in 3% and death in 2 % cases ( 15% of admitted serious cases, 71% with comorbidity); affects all ages but predominately males ( 56%) with median age 59 years ( 2-74 years, less in children below 15);  with variable incubation period days ( 2-14;  mean 3 based on 1,324 cases, 5.2 days based on 425 cases,  6.4 days in travellers from Wuhan);  mean time to symptoms 5 days,  mean time to pneumonia 9 days, mean time to death 14 days,  3-4 reproductive number R0  ( flu 1.2, SARS 2), epidemic doubling time 7.5 days ( Korea 1 day probably due to super spreader), Tripling time in Korea 3 days, has origin possibly from bats, spreads like large droplets and predominately from people having lower respiratory infections and hence standard droplet precautions the answer for the public and close contacts and air born precautions for the healthcare workers dealing with the secretions.

Clinically all patients have fever, 75% have cough; 50% weakness; 50% breathlessness with low total white count and deranged liver enzymes. 20% need ICU care and 15% of them are fatal. Treatment is symptomatic though chloroquine, anti-viral and anti-HIV drugs have shown some efficacy.

We're in a phase of preparedness for a potential pandemic. 24th Feb

Pandemic Alert 21st February
US CDC: Tremendous Public Health Threat.
WHO: "… we are concerned about the number of cases with no clear epidemiological link, such as travel history to China or contact with a confirmed case"
Public Health Emergency of International Concern 30th Jan 2020 : Mandatory to report to WHO each human and animal case.
Prior 5 PHEIC’s:  

1.     26th April 2009 - 10th August 2010 Swine flu
2.      May 2014 Polio: resurgence of wild polio.
3.     August 2014 Ebola: It was the first PHEIC in a resource-poor setting.
4.      Feb 1 2016 to 18 Nov 2016 Zika
5.     2018–20 Kivu Ebola
Public Health Emergency of state Concern: Kerala lifted on 12th Feb.

Community spread: Cases are detected in Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong and Japan in community where it's not known what the source of the infection was.

Close Contacts of COVID 19 patients : Providing direct care to patients, working with infected health care workers, visiting infected patients or staying in the same close environment, working together in close proximity or sharing the same classroom environment with an infected patient, traveling together with infected patient in any kind of conveyance, living in the same household as an infected patient. The epidemiological link may have occurred within a 14-day period before or after the onset of illness in the case under consideration. 

Daily Statistics
Total cases: 80,598
Deaths: 2,712
Recovered: 28,110
Currently Infected Patients: 49,776
Mild cases: 40,556  (81%)
Serious or Critical: 9220 (19%)
Serious or critical mortality 15%
Likely minimum deaths 2712 + 1383 (9220 x15) = 4095 with the present trend and available treatment (plus

Summary Points
1.     Corona Namaste: Let’s not shake hands
2.     Time for facts, not fear; for rationality, not rumours and for solidarity, not stigma.
3.     Help line: 23978046
4.     Total number = Lab confirmed + CT Diagnosed Cases (12-19 February) and before and after only lab confirmed cases
5.     No or little evidence to support the possibility of vertical transmission from the mother to the baby. [Lancet Feb 20]
6.     Sudden jump in deaths and new cases on 12th due to inclusion of CT diagnosed cases.
7.     WHO: Epidemic could still ‘go in any direction’ and outbreak just ‘beginning’ outside China?
8.      Coronavirus vaccine could be ready in 18 months (WHO) 
9.      Human to human contact Requires prolonged contact (possibly ten minutes or more) within three to six feet.
10.  14th Feb: 1,716 medical workers have contracted the virus and six of them have died. 1,502 were in Hubei Province, with 1,102 of them in Wuhan. The numbers of infected workers represented 3.8 percent of China’s overall confirmed infections as of Feb. 11 with 0.3% deaths. (18th Feb: Director of Wuhan Hospital died)
11.  Two workers who were sent to Wuhan in January end to help build new hospital have been infected with it
12.  The central banking authorities of China are disinfecting, stashing and reportedly even destroying cash to stop the spread of the coronavirus. People’s Bank of China says that the cash collected by commercial banks must be disinfected before being released back to customers.
13.   Maharishi Valmeki hospital in Delhi stops biometric attendance
14.   China has more than 80 running or pending clinical trials on potential treatments for COVID-19.
15.   634 infected people were found among 3,011 passengers and crew members tested (21% infection rate) out of 3,711 total people on the ship. 2 Deaths, 27 serious
16.  Growing number of clusters of coronavirus cases: a party in a boat in Japan Tokyo with 90 guests where one case spread to more than a dozen, or a church where 43 were infected. There are two likely explanations for the spread of these clusters of infected people: a “super-spreader,” or person who has the propensity to spew more germs than others; or people catching the virus from infected surfaces. We don’t know how long the germs stay on surfaces, but similar viruses can live for a week.
17.  Chinese researchers published the largest analysis of coronavirus cases to date. They found that although men and women have been infected in roughly equal numbers, the death rate among men was 2.8 percent, compared with 1.7 percent among women.
18.  Despite CDC protest, 14 Americans infected with coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship shared a plane back to the U.S. with healthy passengers, separated by plastic sheeting. (New York Post)
19.  An outlier of a 24 days incubation period has been observed. WHO said it could actually reflect a second exposure rather than a long incubation period, and that it wasn't going to change its recommendations? Hubei Province local government on Feb. 22 has reported a case with an incubation period of 27 days
20.  A court temporarily blocked the U.S. government from sending up to 50 people infected with a new virus from China to a Southern California city for quarantine after local officials argued that the plan lacked details about how the community would be protected from the outbreak.

21.  Cases in Asia with no contact with a confirmed case

22.   24th WHO: Pandemic preparedness stage
23.    


Travel Restrictions

Level 1 in all countries (Exercise normal standard hygiene precautions)
Level 2 in all affected countries (Exercise a high degree of caution)
Level 3 in all countries with secondary cases (Reconsider your need to travel)
Level 4 in affected parts of China and Korea (Do not travel)

Case fatality
COVID 19 2% ; MERS 34% (2012, killed 858 people out of the 2,494 infected); SARS 10% (Nov. 2002 - Jul. 2003, originated from Beijing, spread to 41 countries, with 8,096 people infected and 774 deaths); Ebola 50%; Smallpox 30-40%; Measles 10-15% developing countries; Polio 2-5% children and 15-30% adults; Diphtheria 5-10%; Whooping cough 4% infants < 1yr, 1% children < 4 years; Swine flu < 0.1-4 %; Seasonal flu 0.01%; COVID 19 in Wuhan 4.9%; COVID in Hubei Province 3.1%; COVID 19 in Nationwide 2.1%; COVID 19 in other provinces 0.16%.
Number of flu deaths every year: 290,000 to 650,000 (795 to 1,781 deaths per day)


About the Virus
 ‘Corona’ means crown or the halo surrounding the sun. Heart is considered crown and hence coronary arteries. In electron microscope, it is round with spikes poking out from its periphery.

Single-strand, positive-sense RNA genome ranging from 26 to 32 kilobases in length, Beta corona virus from Corona family.

One of the three deadly human respiratory coronaviruses. Others are sSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus [SARS-CoV] and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus [MERS-CoV]).  COVID 19 is 75 to 80% identical to the SARS-CoV

Origin: Wuhan, China December 2019. 1st case informed to the world by Dr. Li Wenliang died on 6th Feb.

Virus is likely to be killed by sunlight, temperature, humidity. SARS stopped around May and June in 2003 due to more sunlight and more humidity.

Pathogenesis

High viral load: Detection of COVID 19 RNA in specimens from the upper respiratory tract with low Ct values on day 4 and day 7 of illness is suggestive of high viral loads and potential for transmissibility. [NEJM]

COVID 19 uses the same cellular receptor as SARS-CoV (human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 [hACE2]), so transmission is expected more after signs of lower respiratory tract disease develop.

SARS is high [unintelligible] kind of inducer. This means that when it infects the lower part of the lung, the body develops a very severe reaction against it and leads to lots of inflammation and scarring. In SARS what we found is that after the first 10 to 15 days it wasn’t the virus killing the patients it was the body’s reaction. Is this virus in the MERS or SARS kind picture or is this the other type of virus which is a milder coronavirus like the NL63 or the 229? It may be the mild (unintelligible) kind inducer. [Dr John Nicholls University of Hong Kong]

COVID 19 grows better in primary human airway epithelial cells than in standard tissue-culture cells, unlike SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV. It is likely that COVID 19 will behave more like SARS-CoV.

Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infect intrapulmonary epithelial cells more than cells of the upper airways. Consequently, transmission occurs primarily from patients with recognized illness and not from patients with mild, nonspecific signs. Though NEJM has reported a case of COVID 19 infection acquired outside of Asia in which transmission appears to have occurred during the incubation period in the index patient but the same has been challenged now.

Transmission

Zoonotic and linked to Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market as 55% with onset before January 1, 2020 were originated there but only 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The Chinese government has banned the wildlife trade until the epidemic passes. 
It is closely related to several bat coronaviruses. Bats are the primary reservoir for the virus. SARS-CoV was transmitted to humans from exotic animals in wet markets, whereas MERS-CoV is transmitted from camels to humans. In both cases, the ancestral hosts were probably bats.
It transmits predominantly with droplets like common flu and not like air born (TB, Measles, Chicken pox). Kissing scenes have been banned in movies in China. In Kerala air crew are exempted from breath analyser tests and China has banned death ceremonies, people gathering together,

NEJM reported a small cluster of five cases suggested transmission from asymptomatic individuals during the incubation period; all patients in this cluster had mild illness. But the same has been challenged. Another case got infected while using gown, but eyes not covered.

Initial serious illness in other countries were less as patients with breathlessness are unlikely to board and patients will mild illness or asymptomatic illness are less likely to transmit infections.

Legal Implications India: Section 270 in The Indian Penal Code: 270. Malignant act likely to spread infection of disease danger­ous to life.—Whoever malignantly does any act which is, and which he knows or has reason to believe to be, likely to spread the infection of any disease dangerous to life, shall be punished with imprisonment of either description for a term which may extend to two years, or with fine, or with both.

Quarantine has Limitations
China imposed unprecedented quarantines across Hubei, locking in about 56 million people, in a bid to stop it spreading.
Villages in Vietnam with 10,000 people close to the nation's capital are placed under quarantine on 13th Feb after six cases of the deadly new coronavirus were discovered there.

1.     21% quarantined in Diamond Ship got infected.
2.     The people on quarantine are kept under a 14-day quarantine. If they are placed together and if anyone is diagnosed during that period, the quarantine will add another 14 days.
  1. The longer you have several thousand people cohoused you will continue to propagate waves of infection.
  2. A better way to quarantine is to break up these people into smaller groups and quarantine them separately.
  3. Why quarantine children < 15 years when the virus is not risky for them.
  4. Why not separate elderly people with comorbid conditions at high risk of deaths and quarantine them separately in one to one or small groups.
  5. Why allow people to celebrate and have cultural programs during quarantine. As was seen in India people dances together with surgical masks during quarantine period,
  6. Ventilation system connects one room to the next. There has been previous concern that the coronavirus can spread through pipes
  7. Stress and anxiety are known to suppress the immune system, making people more susceptible to contracting the virus. 
  8. Quarantine them the way it was done in TB sanitoriums with both sun-balconies and a rooftop terrace where the patients would lie all day either in beds or on specially designed chairs.

Standard Respiratory Droplets Precautions

At triage: Surgical 3 layered mask to the patient; Isolation of at least three feet distance, Cough etiquette and Hand hygiene

Droplet precautions: Three-layer surgical mask by patients, their contacts and health care workers, in an adequately ventilated isolation room, health care workers while caring with the secretions should use eye protection, face shields/goggles. One should limit patient movement, restrict attendants and observe hand hygiene.

Contact precautions: When entering room - gown, mask, goggles, gloves – remove before leaving the room; Dedicated equipment/ disinfection after every use; Care for environment- door knobs, handles, articles, laundry; Avoid patient transport and Hand hygiene

Airborne precautions when handling virus in the lab and while performing aerosol-generating procedures. Room should be with negative pressure with minimum of 12 air changes per hour or at least 160 litres/second/patient in facilities with natural ventilation. There should be restricted movement of other people and all should use gloves, long-sleeved gowns, eye protection, and fit-tested particulate respirators (N95 or equivalent, or higher level of protection)

Public
Strict self-quarantine if sick with flu like illness: 2 weeks
Wash your hands often and for at least 20 seconds with soap and water or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer.
Avoid touching:  Eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.
Avoid close contact: (3-6 feet) with people who are sick with cough or breathlessness
Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.

Masks
Surgical 3 layered Masks: For patients and close contacts
N 95 Masks: For health care providers when handling respiratory secretions.


Lab tests

1.     There are two ways to detect a virus: through the genetic material DNA or RNA or to detect the protein of the virus. The rapid tests look at the protein. It takes 8-12 weeks to make commercial antibodies. So right now, for the diagnostics tests they are using PCR which give you a turnaround in 1-2 hours.
2.       BOTH the upper respiratory tract (URT; nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal) AND lower respiratory tract (LRT; expectorated sputum, endotracheal aspirate, or bronchoalveolar lavage)
3.     Use PPE in the lab
4.     Use viral swabs (sterile Dacron or rayon, not cotton) and viral transport media
5.      In US January, all testing had to be done in CDC laboratories. However, on February 4, the US FDA issued an emergency-use authorization for the CDC's COVID 19 Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, which allows it to be used at any CDC-qualified laboratory in the United States.
6.     Lab precautions: BSL 2 (3 for viral culture labs)


Treatment

1.     No proven antiviral treatment.
2.     With SARS, in 6 months the virus was gone, and it never came back.  Pharmaceutical companies may not spend millions and millions to develop a vaccine for something which may never come back.
3.      Secondary infection, E Coli, are most likely the cause of deaths of the patients in the Philippines and HK.
4.      A combination of lopinavir and ritonavir showed promise in lab in SARS. Combination of lopinavir, ritonavir and recombinant interferon beta-1b was tried in MERS.
6.      Chloroquine had potent antiviral activity against the SARS-CoV, has been shown to have similar activity against HCoV-229E in cultured cells and against HCoV-OC43 both in cultured cells and in a mouse model.
7.      Thailand: Oseltamivir along with lopinavir and ritonavir, both HIV drugs.
8.      Experimental drug: Rrom Gilead Sciences Inc., called remdesevir (started on 6th Feb as a trial)
9.      Russia and China drug: Arbidol, an antiviral drug used in Russia and China for treating influenza, could be combined with Darunavir, the anti-H.I.V. drug, for treating patients with the coronavirus. {the COVID 19 shares some similarity to HIV virus also)
10.   PVP-I mouthwashes and gargles significantly reduce viral load in the oral cavity and the oropharynx. PVP-I has high potency for viricidal activity against hepatitis A and influenza, MERS and SARS
11.   The Drug Controller General of India has approved the "restricted use" of a combination of drugs (Lopinavir and ritonavir) used widely for controlling HIV infection in public health emergency for treating those affected by novel coronavirus.
12.   In SARS, people were put-on long-term steroids ending with immunosuppression and late complications and death. The current protocol is short term treatment.


Common Facts
1.     People receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the COVID 19 as the virus does not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages.
2.     There is no evidence that companion animals/pets such as dogs or cats can be infected with COVID 19.
3.     Pneumococcal vaccine and Hib vaccine do not provide protection against COVID 19.
4.     Regularly rinsing the nose with saline does not protect people from infection with COVID 19 or respiratory infections although it can help people recover more quickly from the common cold.
5.     There is no evidence that using mouthwash will protect you from infection with COVID 19 although some brands or mouthwash can eliminate certain microbes for a few minutes in the saliva in your mouth.
6.     There is no evidence that eating garlic protects people from COVID 19.
7.     Sesame oil does not kill the new coronavirus. Chemical disinfectants that can kill the COVID 19 on surfaces are bleach/chlorine-based disinfectants, either solvents, 75% ethanol, peracetic acid and chloroform.
8.     People of all ages can be infected by COVID 19. Older people, and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus.
9.     Antibiotics do not work against viruses.
10.  To date, there is no specific medicine recommended to prevent or treat it. 

Trolls and conspiracy theories: Not validated and are fake news

1.     COVID 19 is linked to Donald Trump, and US intelligence agencies or pharmaceutical companies are behind it.
2.     That eating snakes, wild animals or drinking bat soup causes corona
3.     Keep your throat moist, avoid spicy food and load up on vitamin C
4.     Avoiding cold or preserved food and drinks, such as ice cream and milkshakes, for "at least 90 days".
5.     Experts have been aware of the virus for years.
6.     The virus was part of China's "covert biological weapons programme" and may have leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
7.     Linked to the suspension of a researcher at Canada's National Microbiology Lab. 
8.     China wants to kill 20,000 COVID 19 patients is totally false. The site is linked to a sex website.

Case Definitions


Suspect case
A. Patients with severe acute respiratory infection (fever, cough, and requiring admission to hospital), AND with no other etiology that fully explains the clinical presentation AND at least one of the following:
·       a history of travel to or residence in the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in the 14 days prior to symptom onset, or
·       patient is a health care worker who has been working in an environment where severe acute respiratory infections of unknown etiology are being cared for.
B. Patients with any acute respiratory illness AND at least one of the following:
·       close contact with a confirmed or probable case of COVID 19 in the 14 days prior to illness onset, or
·       visiting or working in a live animal market in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in the 14 days prior to
·       symptom onset, or
·       worked or attended a health care facility in the 14 days prior to onset of symptoms where patients with hospital associated COVID 19 infections have been reported.
Probable case
A suspect case for whom testing for COVID 19 is inconclusive or for whom testing was positive on a pan-coronavirus assay.

Confirmed case
A person with laboratory confirmation of COVID 19 infection, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms.
Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI)
An ARI with history of fever or measured temperature ≥38 C° and cough; onset within the last ~10 days; and requiring hospitalization. Absence of fever does NOT exclude viral infection
SARI in a person, with history of fever and cough requiring admission to hospital, with no other etiology that fully explains the clinical presentation (clinicians should also be alert to the possibility of atypical presentations in patients who are immunocompromised)
AND any of the following:
a)  A history of travel to Wuhan, Hubei Province China in the 14 days prior to symptom onset; or
b)  the disease occurs in a health care worker who has been working in an environment where patients with severe acute respiratory infections are being cared for, without regard to place of residence or history of travel; or
c)  the person develops an unusual or unexpected clinical course, especially sudden deterioration despite appropriate treatment, without regard to place of residence or history of travel, even if another etiology has been identified that fully explains the clinical presentation

OR A person with acute respiratory illness of any degree of severity who, within 14 days before onset of illness, had any of the following exposures:
a)  close physical contact with a confirmed case of COVID 19 infection, while that patient was symptomatic: or
b)  a healthcare facility in a country where hospital associated COVID 19 infections have been reported

Uncomplicated illness
Patients with uncomplicated upper respiratory tract viral infection, may have non- specific symptoms such as fever, cough, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, headache, muscle pain or malaise. The elderly and immunosuppressed may present with atypical symptoms. These patients do not have any signs of dehydration, sepsis or shortness of breath

Mild pneumonia
Patient with pneumonia and no signs of severe pneumonia. Child with non-severe pneumonia has cough or difficulty breathing + fast breathing: fast breathing (in breaths/min): <2 months, ≥60; 2–11 months, ≥50; 1–5 years, ≥40 and no signs of severe pneumonia

Severe pneumonia
Adolescent or adult: fever or suspected respiratory infection, plus one of respiratory rate >30 breaths/min, severe respiratory distress, or SpO2 <90% on room air
Child with cough or difficulty in breathing, plus at least one of the following: central cyanosis or SpO2 <90%; severe respiratory distress (e.g. grunting, very severe chest indrawing); signs of pneumonia with a general danger sign: inability to breastfeed or drink, lethargy or unconsciousness, or convulsions. Other signs of pneumonia may be present: chest indrawing, fast breathing (in breaths/min): <2 months, ≥60; 2–11 months, ≥50; 1–5 years, ≥40.
The diagnosis is clinical; chest imaging can exclude complications.
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome
Onset: new or worsening respiratory symptoms within one week of known clinical insult.
Chest imaging (radiograph, CT scan, or lung ultrasound): bilateral opacities, not fully explained by effusions, lobar or lung collapse, or nodules.
Origin of oedema: respiratory failure not fully explained by cardiac failure or fluid overload. Need objective assessment (e.g. echocardiography) to exclude hydrostatic cause of oedema if no risk factor present.
Oxygenation (adults):
Mild ARDS: 200 mmHg < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300 mmHg (with PEEP or CPAP ≥5 cm H2O, or non-ventilated)
Moderate ARDS: 100 mmHg < PaO2/FiO2 ≤200 mmHg with PEEP ≥5 cm H2O, or non-ventilated)
Severe ARDS: PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 100 mmHg with PEEP ≥5 cmH2O, or non- ventilated)
When PaO2 is not available, SpO2/FiO2 ≤315 suggests ARDS (including in non-ventilated patients)
Oxygenation (children; note OI = Oxygenation Index and OSI = Oxygenation Index using SpO2)
Bilevel NIV or CPAP ≥5 cmH2O via full face mask: PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300 mmHg
or SpO2/FiO2 ≤264
Mild ARDS (invasively ventilated): 4 ≤ OI < 8 or 5 ≤ OSI < 7.5
Moderate ARDS (invasively ventilated): 8 ≤ OI < 16 or 7.5 ≤ OSI < 12.3

Sever Sepsis

Adults: life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to suspected or proven infection, with organ dysfunction.
Signs of organ dysfunction include altered mental status, difficult or fast breathing, low oxygen saturation, reduced urine output, fast heart rate, weak pulse, cold extremities or low blood pressure, skin mottling, or laboratory evidence of coagulopathy, thrombocytopenia, acidosis, high lactate or hyperbilirubinemia.
Children: suspected or proven infection and ≥2 SIRS criteria, of which one must be abnormal temperature or white blood cell count

Septic shock
Adults: persisting hypotension despite volume resuscitation, requiring vasopressors to maintain MAP ≥65 mmHg and serum lactate level >2 mmol/L
Children: any hypotension (SBP <5th centile or >2 SD below normal for age) or 2-3 of the following: altered mental state; tachycardia or bradycardia (HR <90 bpm or >160 bpm in infants and HR <70 bpm or >150 bpm in children); prolonged capillary refill (>2 sec) or warm vasodilation with bounding pulses; tachypnea; mottled skin or petechial or purpuric rash; increased lactate; oliguria; hyperthermia or hypothermia
e ARDS (invasively ventilated): OI ≥ 16 or OSI ≥ 12.3
        Search:
Country,
Other

Total Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Serious,
Critical
China
78,064
+406
2,715
+52
29,749
8,745
S. Korea
1,146
+313
12
+4
22
6
Diamond Princess
691
4
+1
10
36
Italy
323
+94
11
+4
2
19
Japan
161
+2
1
23
14
Iran
95
+34
16
+4
25
Singapore
91
+1
58
7
Hong Kong
85
+4
2
18
6
USA
57
+4
6
Thailand
37
+2
22
2
Taiwan
31
+1
1
5
1
Bahrain
23
+21
Australia
22
15
Malaysia
22
20
Germany
18
+2
15
1
Vietnam
16
16
France
14
+2
1
11
U.K.
13
8
U.A.E.
13
3
2
Canada
11
3
Kuwait
11
+6
Macao
10
5
Spain
9
+6
2
Iraq
5
+4
Oman
4
+2
Philippines
3
1
2
India
3
3
Austria
2
+2
Israel
2
Russia
2
2
Afghanistan
1
Algeria
1
+1
Belgium
1
1
Cambodia
1
1
Croatia
1
+1
Egypt
1
1
Finland
1
1
Lebanon
1
Nepal
1
1
Sri Lanka
1
1
Sweden
1
Switzerland
1
+1
        Highlighted in green
        = all cases have recovered from the infection.
        Highlighted in grey
        = all cases have had an outcome (there are no active cases).





Role of CMAAO and other Medical Associations

Get prepared for containment, including active surveillance, early detection, isolation and case management, contact tracing and prevention of onward spread of the virus and to share full data with WHO.   All countries should emphasise on reducing human infection, prevention of secondary transmission and international spread. Intensify IEC activities.

CMAAO IMA FOMA MAMC Recommendations
1.     Prise control of PPE
2.     Acctreditation of private labs for testing
3.     Private insurance should cover the infectyion
4.     IEC and CME activities to be intensified
5.     Allow paid leaves for air born and droplet infections
6.     Allow teleconsultations in flu like diseases
7.     CSR funds for vaccine research
8.     Surgical three-layered masks at public places
9.     Start National program on respiratory secretions born illnesses
10.  In India incorporate respiratory infection control under swatch bharat

CMAAO _ Suggestions so far

1.     7th January: CMAAO Alert: WHO to monitor China's mysterious pneumonia of unknown virus outbreak
2.      8th Jan: CMAAO warns Asian citizens travelling China over mystery pneumonia outbreak
3.      10th January: Editorial: COVID 19 strain causing pneumonia in Wuhan, China, It’s a new strain of corona virus in the china pneumonia
4.      13th Jan: China Virus Outbreak Linked to Seafood Market
5.      15th Jan: First Case China Pneumonia Virus Found Outside China in Thailand
6.      17th Jan: WHO issues warning after 'mysterious' Chinese COVID 19 spreads to Japan
7.      17th Jan: India at threat of Corona. CMAAO urges travel advisory on coronavirus: drugtodayonline.com/medical-news/nation/10379-cmaao-urges-travel-advisory-on-coronavirus.html  (18th Indian govt issues travel advisory as China's mysterious 'Coronavirus' spread in other countries)
9.      18-20 Jan: Three countries CMAAO meet, also discussed COVID 19
10.   22nd Jan: Still not being declared to be a notifiable disease, N 95 to be included in the list of essential drugs and prise capped, Oseltamivir, should also be prise capped, air flights should have available air masks for all passengers, not declaring flu like symptoms while boarding or landing should be a punishable offence (23rd India advisory to airports)
11.   24th: Inter Ministerial Committee needs to be formed on COVID 19 (PMO took a meeting on 24th evening)
12.   25th Jan: Indian government should pay for Indians affected with the virus in China
13.   26 Jan: Need of National droplet Infection Control program, Policy to ban export of face masks, policy to evacuate Indians and neighbouring countries from China affected areas, Time to collaborate on Nosode therapy (Exports of masks banned on 31st January by Indian Government) Action:  [ Feb 1st: Ibrahim Mohamed Solih thanked India for the evacuation of seven Maldivian nationals from the coronavirus-hit Chinese city of Wuhan. India evacuated 647 people] [ on 30th India banned gloves, PEP and masks but on 8th lifted the ban on surgical masks/disposable masks and all gloves except NBR gloves. All other personal protection equipment, including N-95 and equipment accompanying masks and gloves shall remined banned.] 
14.   27th Jan: History of anti-fever drugs at airports should be taken
15.   28th Jan: Do research on Nosodes
16.   29th Jan: Closure of live markets all over the world, India should take a lead
17.   30th Jan: Paid flu leave, surgical mask at public places, N 95 for health care providers
18.   31st Jan: Respiratory hygiene advisory schools, Pan India task force to be made 
19.   1st Feb: Disaster Budget is the need of the hour
20.   3rd Feb: 100 crore budget for COVID 19; Private labs to be recognised; one dedicated COVID 19National help line, MTNL BSNL to have a line of advisory in their bills, isolation wards to be single rooms or two beds separated with six feet distance, national insurance to cover cost of treatment,  Sea ports to have same precautions, prize caps for masks, and gloves, National droplet control program, clarification that import of goods is not risky And suspend AI flights to China and Hong Kong  [Feb 4 Air India on Tuesday suspended flight services to Hong Kong from Friday until March 28. Earlier, Air India had cancelled its flight to Shanghai from January 31 to February 14 and on 5th Feb the Ministry of Defence is setting up 10 new laboratories across the country, primarily to conduct research on viruses] [ 14th Feb: Japan to earmark $140 million to combat coronavirus. The government will earmark 15.3 billion yen (approximately $140 million) for emergency measures, including ones to bolster testing and medical treatment capacity, to double mask production to more than 600 million a month, and credits for small and medium-sized businesses hurt by the outbreak.
21.   4th Feb: Kerala travel advisory needed [The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare issued a fresh travel advisory on Monday urging people to refrain from visiting China]
22.   5th Feb: PM should talk about COVID 19in Man Ki Baat or a special address
23.   6th Feb: Time to have makeshift bed policy to tackle deaths in Kota, Muzaffarpur and COVID 19[Uttarakhand to set up two dedicated hospitals to tackle coronavirus : https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/uttarakhand-to-set-up-two-dedicated-hospitals-to-tackle-coronavirus/story-NYxBOw6XHTbugznTWa3CXK.html]
24.   7th Feb: IPC 270 should be applicable to COVID 19
25.   8th Feb: teleconsultation should be allowed to flu and COVID 19consultation
26.  9th Feb: Schools should start droplet prevention program
27.  10th Feb: Pharma freebee how to handle
28.  11th Feb: IMR should be classified as preventable vs non preventable
29.  12th Feb: Swatch Bharat should include COVID 19 prevention

Inputs: Dr Rajan Sharma, Dr R V Asokan, Dr KK Kalra, Dr Sushil Kumar, Dr Anita Arora, Dr Upasana Arora, Dr SS Srivastava, Dr Shilpi Khanna, Ms Swati, Dr Rahiul Shukla, Dr Arti Verma, Dr Anil Kumar, Dr G S Gyani, Dr Sonal Saxena, Dr CM Bhagat, Dr Vikas Manchanda, Dr Nandani Sharma, Dr Suneela Garg, Dr TK Joshi, Dr Mamta Jajoo, Dr Shariga Qureshi, Dr Manish Kumar, Dr Harmeet Singh, Dr Dr Rai, Dr VK Monga, Dr AP Singh,  Dr Ramesh Datta, Dr Maj Prachi Garg, Dr Anil Kumar,  Dr Ragini Agrawal, Dr Rajeev Kumar, Dr Harish Grover,  Dr Mini Mehta, Dr Lalan Bharti,  Dr Rajeev Sood, Dr N V Kamat, Dr Atin Kumar, Dr RN Tandon, Dr Kaushik Sinha Deb, Dr Tarun Mittal, Dr Dinesh Sahay, Dr SK Poddar