Showing posts with label mortality. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mortality. Show all posts

Friday, June 26, 2020

135 CMAAO CORONA FACTS and MYTH BUSTER Mortality Reduction in CMAAO countries



135 CMAAO CORONA FACTS and MYTH BUSTER Mortality Reduction in CMAAO countries


Dr K K Aggarwal
President CMAAO

With inputs from Dr Monica Vasudev

957: Minutes of Virtual Meeting of CMAAO NMAs on “Can mortality in Covid-19 patients be reduced?”

20th June, 2020, Saturday
9.30am-10.30am

Participants

Member NMAs

Dr KK Aggarwal, President CMAAO
Dr Yeh Woei Chong, Singapore Chair CMAAO
Dr Ravi Naidu, Past President CMAAO, Malaysia
Dr Rajan Sharma, National President, IMA
Dr N Gnanabaskaran, President Malaysian Medical Association
Dr Marthanda Pillai, Member World Medical Council
Dr Marie Uzawa Urabe, Japan
Dr Md Jamaluddin Chowdhary, Bangladesh
Dr Sajjad Qaisar, Pakistan

Invitees

Dr Russell D’Souza, UNESCO Chair in Bioethics, Australia
Dr Sanchita Sharma, Editor IJCP Group

  • In high density population, transmission rate is high (40%); if low density, then chances of transmission are low (<5%).
  • Mortality in most Asian countries is not as high as in Europe, US.
  • Doctors should work on reducing mortality, while the government should work on prevention of infection.
  • Mortality should be an exception and not the rule (exceptions are patients with fulminant disease – severe AMI, stroke, encephalitis).
  • Mortality is high, if signals are missed.

India Update

  • Deaths are 9 per million population
  • Situation differs from state to state; Delhi, Mumbai are epicenters
  • Delhi has abolished home quarantine; as per new policy, all positive cases will be placed in mandatory institutional quarantine for at least 5 days. Patients will only be allowed to leave the quarantine centre if there are no symptoms.
  • Cost of Covid-19 testing in Delhi has been reduced to Rs 2400 from Rs 4500.
  • Cost of Covid-19 treatment in private hospitals has been capped for 60% of isolation beds and ICU beds.
  • To create more beds, two railway stations in Delhi have been totally converted to Covid facilities.
  • Testing has been increased; this will help detect asymptomatic carriers and potential superspreaders
  • In Kerala, only the very sick patients are hospitalized in tertiary centers; other positive cases are in peripheral hospitals/hotels; home quarantine is practiced with HCW visit/teleconsultation. People participation, better health infrastructure, more testing have contributed to low mortality (≤1%)
  • Observations from Delhi & Mumbai, India

  • About 20% of people have loss of taste and smell; recovery is a rule in these patients.
  • If patient has diarrhea, the virus is more contagious and the patient may be a superspreader.
  • Fever may last as long as 3 weeks and does not respond to paracetamol. It responds to indomethacin, naproxen, mefenamic acid and nimesulide.
  • People with persistent respiratory symptoms respond immediately to inhaled corticosteroids (ICS).
  • If low lymphocyte count, there is better response to ritonavir + lopinavir combination.
  • Mortality can be reduced, if LMWH is given on the day hypoxia is detected (continued till recovered), short course of steroids (3 doses of IV/oral prednisolone/dexamethasone), remdesivir if available, continuing aspirin and statin for 3 months after discharge.
  • Patients who develop cytokine storm may not recover.

Bangladesh Update

  • There is alarming spread of infection.
  • Till now home quarantine is allowed but this is increasing chances of infection.
  • Death rate is less; deaths are 8 per million population.

Pakistan Update

  • 15 deaths per million population
  • Total cases: 748 per million population
  • Total tests: 4581 per million population
  • Around 50,000 patients are in isolation
  • Many people are not following precautionary measures (social distancing, masks; they do not consult a doctors, if they develop symptoms)

Australia & New Zealand Update

  • The state of Victoria has had fresh new cases every day for 5-6 days with opening of schools, restaurants etc.  There is high alert for a second wave. Testing has increased.
  • Other states have had virtually no new cases in the last two days.
  • Borders have not been opened except in the states of Victoria and New South Wales.
  • New Zealand had few cases last week after 2-3 weeks of no new cases.

Malaysia update

  • There are 8530 cases and 121 deaths; 807 have been discharged
  • The movement control order (MCO) has been reduced; industries have started opening up,      though cinemas, pubs, swimming pools are still closed.
  • Clusters are starting in foreign workers
  • There is a concern that the general population may start to relax as Malaysia is doing well.



Singapore Update

  • There have been 26 deaths; 40,000 cases (of these only 1800 are community cases, rest are in migrant workers living in the dormitories) and only 26 in ICU
  • Most patients are young and fit; statistics show that below 30 years of age, only 0.5% need oxygen and zero percent need ICU care. 
  • The system was not allowed to be overwhelmed at any time.
  • Social distancing, masking, lockdown, contact tracing, lessons learnt from SARS have helped to reduce mortality.


Thursday, June 25, 2020

134 CMAAO CORONA FACTS and MYTH BUSTER Mortality Reduction


134 CMAAO CORONA FACTS and MYTH BUSTER Mortality Reduction

Dr K K Aggarwal
President CMAAO

With inputs from Dr Monica Vasudev

956: Round Table Expert Zoom Meeting on “Mortality reduction in Covid-19”

20th June, 2020
11am-12pm

Participants

Dr KK Aggarwal
Dr Ashok Gupta
Dr Suneela Garg
Dr Alex Thomas
Dr DR Rai
Dr JA Jayalal
Dr Jayakrishnan Alapet
Dr PN Arora
Mrs Upasana Arora
Ms Meenakshi Datta Ghosh
Dr K Kalra
Ms Ira Gupta
Dr Sanchita Sharma

Key points from the discussion

  • Mortality due to Covid-19 differs in different countries, although there are no answers as to why. The answer may lie in different clinical presentation.
  • Careful treatment and educated patients may reduce mortality to less than 0.2%.
  • We must learn from our experiences. Lessons learnt over the course of the pandemic may reduce mortality.
  • Presentation may vary in different patients; hypoxia (silent) for 4-6 hours increases mortality. We must learn to recognize the symptoms.
  • Day 1 symptom is not fever, cough or shortness of breath; nonspecific symptoms such as headache, muscle pain, diarrhea, nausea, pain in the legs below knees may be seen on Day 1, which may be missed.
  • Patients who have loss of taste and smell usually recover.
  • A person who has diarrhea may be a superspreader.
  • Fever may last as long as 3 weeks and does not respond to paracetamol. It responds to naproxen, indomethacin, mefenamic acid and nimesulide.
  • LMWH on Day 1 in all patients who have comorbid conditions; this may reduce mortality due to thrombosis.
  • Use of steroid (injectable) may reduce hypoxia.
  • Every ER should have an Airborne Infections Isolation (AII) room; this should be a part of SOP. If no AII room, then every ER should have air purifier with at least 10 exchanges per hour.
  • Many patients come late to the hospital when the disease has become severe; patients do not know at what stage they should reach the hospital.
  • The new order of Delhi Government, which abolished home quarantine, is a retrograde step. This will overburden the hospitals.
  • Capacity building in healthcare workers is not optimal.
  • SOPs should be displayed prominently in every hospital, restaurants etc.
  • Alternatives to central oxygen supply in hospitals such as oxygen cylinders, ambu bag should be in place in case the central oxygen pressure falls.
  • Data of all Covid patients in the country - clinical presentation, treatment - should be analyzed and made available for learning.
  • Pulse oximeters, oxygen concentrators should be accessible to communities (primary care, residential societies).
  • There is a lack of awareness about proper home quarantine. Putting patients in home quarantine without monitoring may be detrimental and may increase mortality.
  • Tamil Nadu follows the PALM regime (Prone position, Absolute bed rest, Low molecular weight heparin, Methyl prednisolone 1 mg/kg in moderate to severe cases).
  • Health is the right of the patient. There is no clarity about advisories. Patients should know how to proceed.
  • Various videos circulating in the media have created fear. People may hide their illness because of fear and stigma.










Wednesday, May 27, 2020

CMAAO CORONA FACTS and MYTH BUSTER 106 Lessons Learned So far from COVID



CMAAO CORONA FACTS and MYTH BUSTER 106 Lessons Learned So far from COVID

Dr K K Aggarwal
President Confederation of Medical Associations of Asia and Oceania, HCFI, Past National President IMA, Chief Editor Medtalks

Round Table Expert Zoom Meeting on Lessons learnt from Covid-19

23rd May, 2020
11am-12pm

Participants

Dr KK Aggarwal
Dr Alok Roy
Dr AK Agarwal
Dr Narottam Puri
Dr Suneela Garg
Dr Girdhar Gyani
Dr Atul Pandey
Dr Ashok Gupta
Dr Jayakrishnan Alapet
Dr Alex Thomas
Dr K Kalra
Dr Major Prachi Garg
Ms Ira Gupta
Dr Sanchita Sharma

·        Do not miss the first case in the country or your state. A first case of a new disease is a potential epidemic.
·        We should have permanent Arogya Setu App for all notifiable communicable diseases, specifically MDR TB and other highly infectious diseases. Personal privacy does not apply in cases of notifiable diseases. The concept of “broader good” comes into play here.
·        Elderly are at risk. We must have a national program for the protection of health of the elderly. There is a need to set up separate geriatric medicine departments in all medical colleges. It is also important to establish a group of doctors aged ≥65years. Their rich experience can be tapped into in times of crisis.
·        Contact time: we must know the contact time for every disease. For TB, the contact time is 8 hours. For Covid-19, the contact time is between 10 and 30 minutes. A casual contact time of less than 10 minutes has low risk of transmission (monitoring). If the contact time is more than 30 minutes, the risk of transmission is high (quarantine).
·        A virus may have several different types of presentations/manifestations in different countries or population groups and the treatment will be according to the presentation. Identify the presentation in different communities. Covid-10 has so far shown the following 7 characteristics.
1.    It is a viral illness, so it is self-limiting disease; antiviral drugs like remdesivir may work
2.    It has bacterial activity as in some cases, procalcitonin is high, neutrophilia is also seen; antibiotics like doxycycline, azithromycin may work.
3.    It has some HIV like properties, as there is lymphopenia (viruses usually cause lymphocytosis), decrease in CD4 cell count; anti-HIV drugs may be effective.
4.    It causes immuno-inflammation: Viruses do not cause immunoinflammation. But, increase in ESR (>100), CRP, ferritin (acute phase reactants) is seen in Covid-19. Hydroxychloroquine may be effective. Immunoinflammation is being seen much more in European countries than in Asian countries.
5.    It causes thrombo-inflammation: Increase in d-dimer and fibrinogen (usually if d-dimer is high, fibrinogen is low); anticoagulation may be important.
6.    Silent hypoxia (walking dead phenomenon): Patients have low oxygen but are conscious. Usually, people with hypoxia are drowsy, irritable.
7.    Cytokine storm: ARDS
·        We have learnt three terms: Home isolation, home quarantine and monitoring.
·        The pandemic has focused on different populations e.g. migrants, factory workers, private sector
·        The problem of migrants should be anticipated timely and planned properly. Positivity rate in India is 3.5-7%
·        Random testing rate of people reaching Bihar is 8% and for those reaching UP is 5%.
·        Living with fear: Manage fear by being well-prepared.
·        Treat the patient, not the report. About 30% of tests may be false-negative.
·        There should be a worldwide ban on wet markets.
·        Vaccine may or may not come. We may be over-relying on a vaccine.
·        Health infrastructure will change. Now, new hospitals will be airy, roomier, more ventilated; there will be no central AC, no attached bathroom with every room.
·        Standard precautions: We did not learn social distancing from the 2009 H1N1 flu. Face to face meeting is more risky than side to side meeting.
·        Never ignore nature.
·        Never ignore essential health services.
·        Super spreader: A latest study from Israel says that 5% people are responsible for the remaining 95% of transmission. This is similar to the 80/20 rule, which has been the standard teaching in PSM, where approximately 20% of infected individuals are responsible for 80% of transmissions. The first known super spreader was in South Korea (patient #31) and then there have been super spreaders in different countries.
·        We have learnt how to sustain the improved pollution. If pollution levels are very high, then a lockdown of 1-2 days may help.
·        Terms like R0 (R naught; reproduction number), herd immunity have been revisited.
·        Create more awareness in the society.
·        Transparent communication and dissemination of accurate information to promote community engagement is important to allay the fears, stigma. We need to be consistent in data projections.
·        Be a realist rather than being an optimist when presenting data”
·        This pandemic has highlighted the inadequacy in testing and testing facilities, the importance of investment in health and more focus on research and indigenous health technologies.
·        We must keep a watch on every situation happening in the world. Be prepared in advance.
·        The disease has focused on the need of Epidemic Intelligence services, which can forecast epidemics. A training program can be started on pilot basis in few medical colleges.
·        Learn to live with Corona is the new buzzword.
·        A change in lifestyle with new norms is key “self-disciplined”; practice social distancing, personal hygiene.
·        This is an opportunity to be self-sufficient, self-reliant and promote “Make in India”. The pandemic started with virtually no PPE but there are now over 600 manufacturers.
·        We have to devise ways to keep the economy running as the pandemic has greatly affected the jobs leading to a negative GDP.
·        This is an opportunity to decongest slums.
·        We need to have a White Paper on national health security.

 Histopathology

Seven lungs from patients who died of confirmed COVID-19 and seven lungs obtained during autopsy from patients who died from H1n1 ARDS in 2009, showed three distinctive features of COVID-19:

·        Severe endothelial injury associated with intracellular SARS-CoV-2 virus and disrupted endothelial cell membranes
·        Widespread vascular thrombosis with microangiopathy and occlusion of alveolar capillaries
·        Significant new vessel growth through intussusceptive angiogenesis.

This is a respiratory virus that causes a vascular disease, and the damage to the blood vessels

May 21 in the New England Journal of Medicine.

Although lungs from influenza sufferers also showed diffuse alveolar damage, in the COVID-19 lungs, there were 9-fold as many segments occluded by microthrombi (P < .001).

Although tissue hypoxia was probably a common feature in the lungs from both these groups of patients, the greater degree of endothelialitis and thrombosis in the lungs from patients with COVID-19 may contribute to the relative frequency of sprouting and intussusceptive angiogenesis observed in these patients

The amount of angiogenesis seen was unexpected, and about 2.7-fold higher than that seen in lungs from patients with influenza (P < .001).

Wuhan Update
In two weeks, the Chinese health authorities managed to administer 6.5 million tests for the coronavirus in Wuhan, the city where the pandemic began and where six new infections detected two weeks ago raised fears of a second wave of contagion.  200 cases were found, mostly people who showed no symptoms.


Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Round table Experts from HCFI and MAMC Draft Document on Corona Virus




CMAAO Update 12th February on NOVEL CORONA 2019

Round table Experts from HCFI and MAMC Draft Document



Dr KK Aggarwal
President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA

Namaste: Let’s not shake hands

Good News: Total cases increasing, deaths increasing BUT total daily cases declining



Confirmed cases:  45166, Countries 28, Deaths 1115
Active cases: 39267 (currently infected), 31025 (79%) mild cases; 8242 (21%) serious cases. 12 serious cases outside China
Closed cases: 5899 (no outcome), 4784 (81%)
Pattern: 82% mild, 15% severe, 3% critical, 2% deaths
Serious or critical mortality 15%
More than 136 cases have been confirmed on a ship quarantined in Japan
Secondary cases: Thailand, Taiwan, Germany, Vietnam, Japan, France, US
Deaths outside China: Philippines on Feb 2 (44 Chinese man M) and 2nd in Hong Kong ( 39 M, local)  on February 4, both had co-morbid conditions. Both acquired infection from Wuhan.
Likely deaths 1115 +1236 = 2351 with the present trend and available treatment


Summary
Possibly behaves like SARS with < 2 % case fatality (15% of admitted serious cases),  mean time to death 14 days,  mean time to pneumonia 9 days, mean time to symptoms 5 days, 3-4 reproductive number R0, incubation period 2-14 days- mean 5.5 days, has origin possibly from bats, spreads like large droplets and predominately from people having lower respiratory infections and hence standard droplet precautions the answer for the public and air born precautions for the healthcare workers. {So: RT Experts meet HCFI and MAMC]

CDC Case Definition
1.     Fever (subjective or confirmed)

OR signs/symptoms of lower respiratory illness (cough or shortness of breath)

PLUS, any person, including health care workers, who has had close contact with a laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV patient within 14 days of symptom onset.

2.     [Contact means: Being within approximately 6 feet (2 meters) or within the room or care area of a 2019-nCoV case for a prolonged period of time while not wearing recommended personal protective equipment (gowns, gloves, NIOSH-certified disposable N95 respirator, eye protection); close contact can include caring for, living with, visiting, or sharing a health care waiting area or room with a 2019-nCoV case OR having direct contact with infectious secretions of a 2019-nCoV case (e.g., being coughed on) while not wearing recommended personal protective equipment.]

3.     Fever and signs/symptoms of lower respiratory illness (cough or shortness of breath) PLUS a history of travel from Hubei Province, China within 14 days of symptom onset

4.     Fever and signs/symptoms of lower respiratory illness (cough or shortness of breath) requiring hospitalization PLUS a history of travel from mainland China within 14 days of symptom onset.

Continue asking patients with suspected flu or diarrhoea if they, or someone they have been in contact with, recently returned from corona affected area. [ in US confirmed case they 2019-nCoV RNA in a stool specimen collected on day 7 of the patient’s illness.]

Public Health Emergency of International Concern 30th Jan 2020
Mandatory to report to WHO each human and animal case.
Prior 5 PHEIC’s: 

26th April 2009 Swine flu: 10 August 2010, WHO announced that the H1N1 influenza virus has moved into the post-pandemic period. However, localized outbreaks of various magnitudes are likely to continue.

 

May 2014 Polio: resurgence of wild polio. October 2019, continuing cases of wild polio in Pakistan and Afghanistan, in addition to new vaccine-derived cases in Africa and Asia, was reviewed and remains a PHEIC. It was extended on 11 December 2019.

 

August 2014 Ebola: It was the first PHEIC in a resource-poor setting.

 

Feb 1 2016 Zika: link with microcephaly and Guillain–Barré syndrome. This was the first time a PHEIC was declared for a mosquito‐borne disease. This declaration was lifted on 18 November 2016.


2018–20 Kivu Ebola: A review of the PHEIC had been planned at a fifth meeting of the EC on 10 October 2019[44] and as of 18 October 2019, it continues to be a PHEIC.


Kerala: state public health emergency. Three primary cases in North, South and Central. Kasaragod district is in north Kerala, Thrissur in central Kerala and Alappuzha in South Kerala]. Four Karnataka districts bordering Kerala — Kodagu, Mangaluru, Chamarajanagar and Mysuru have been put on high alert.

Help line India:  +91-11-23978046, ncov2019@gmaildotcom, mohfw.gov.in/node/4904

Virus
Single-strand, positive-sense RNA genome ranging from 26 to 32 kilobases in length, Beta corona virus from Corona family.

‘corona’ means crown or the halo surrounding the sun. Heart is considered crown and hence coronary arteries. In electron microscope, it is round with spikes poking out from its periphery.

Origin: Wuhan, China December 2019. 1st case informed to the world by Dr. Li Wenliang died Feb 6th

Virus is likely killed by sunlight, temperature, humidity. The virus can remain intact at 4 degrees or 10 degrees for a longer period of time. But at 30 degrees then you get inactivation. SARS stopped around May and June in 2003 due to more sunlight and more humidity.  Alive on surface: possibly 3-12 hours
Link to ACE: 2019-nCoV might be able to bind to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor in humans.

Three deadly human respiratory coronaviruses viruses: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus [SARS-CoV], Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus [MERS-CoV]) and 2019-nCoV: The current virus is 75 to 80% identical to the SARS-CoV

Pathogenesis

High viral load: Detection of 2019-nCoV RNA in specimens from the upper respiratory tract with low Ct values on day 4 and day 7 of illness is suggestive of high viral loads and potential for transmissibility. [NEJM]

2019-nCoV uses the same cellular receptor as SARS-CoV (human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 [hACE2]), so transmission is expected only after signs of lower respiratory tract disease develop.

SARS is high [unintelligible] kind of inducer. This means that when it infects the lower part of the lung, the body develops a very severe reaction against it and leads to lots of inflammation and scarring. In SARS what we found is that after the first 10 to 15 days it wasn’t the virus killing the patients it was the body’s reaction. Is this virus in the MERS or SARS kind picture or is this the other type of virus which is a milder coronavirus like the NL63 or the 229. It may be the mild (unintelligible) kind inducer. [Dr John Nicholls University of Hong Kong]

Infectiousness to humans: 2019-nCoV grows better in primary human airway epithelial cells than in standard tissue-culture cells, unlike SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV. It is likely that 2019-nCoV will behave more like SARS-CoV.

Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infect intrapulmonary epithelial cells more than cells of the upper airways. Consequently, transmission occurs primarily from patients with recognized illness and not from patients with mild, nonspecific signs. Though NEJM has reported a case of 2019-nCoV infection acquired outside of Asia in which transmission appears to have occurred during the incubation period in the index patient but the same has been challenged now.

No sore throat: This new virus attacks the lungs and not just the throat. Patients so far have not presented with a sore throat, the reason being that the 2019-nCoV launches an attack at the intraepithelial cells of lung tissue.

Transmission
Types: Droplet (droplet, contact, fomites) Corona; aerosol,  nuclei or ait born e.g. TB
Kissing scenes banned in movies: China
Air crew exempted from breath analyser tests: Kerala
Burial:  China has banned death ceremonies, people gathering together,

Lockdown: 50 million people in China
Asymptomatic transmission: One report of a small cluster of five cases suggested transmission from asymptomatic individuals during the incubation period; all patients in this cluster had mild illness. Another case got infected while using gown, but eyes not covered. NEJM reported a transmission from asymptomatic case but the same has been challenged.

Link to Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market: 55% with onset before January 1, 2020 and 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The Chinese government has banned the wildlife trade until the epidemic passes. 

Zoonotic but unlikely to spread through seafood: It is closely related to several bat coronaviruses. Bats are the primary reservoir for the virus. SARS-CoV was transmitted to humans from exotic animals in wet markets, whereas MERS-CoV is transmitted from camels to humans. In both cases, the ancestral hosts were probably bats.
The virus has been traced to snakes in China. Snakes often hunt for bats in wild. Reports indicate that snakes were sold in the local seafood market in Wuhan, raising the possibility that the 2019-nCoV might have jumped from the host species - bats - to snakes and then to humans at the beginning of the outbreak. However, it is doubted as to how the virus could adapt to both the cold-blooded and warm-blooded hosts.
Risk to other Asian countries: It is less likely to have the serious illness in other countries. As patients with breathlessness are unlikely to board and patients will mild illness or asymptomatic illness are less likely to transmit infections.
Legal Implications India: Section 270 in The Indian Penal Code: 270. Malignant act likely to spread infection of disease danger­ous to life.—Whoever malignantly does any act which is, and which he knows or has reason to believe to be, likely to spread the infection of any disease dangerous to life, shall be punished with imprisonment of either description for a term which may extend to two years, or with fine, or with both.

Clinical Features (Current trend)
Median age: 59 years (2-74 years); Male to female ratio: 56% male
Mean incubation period: 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days.
Epidemic doubling time: In its early stages, every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19)
Contagiousness or Basic reproductive number: 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).  The reproduction number R0 or “r naught” refers to the number of additional people that an infected person typically makes sick.  An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear. The Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.
Comorbid conditions: 71%, deaths in comorbid cases, SARS affected people in their 30 or 50 years. And MERS affected people with co-morbidity. The China data indicate that it’s those with the co-morbidity are most at risk like seasonal influenza.
0-15 years age: Just like SARS, it mostly does not affect children 15 years or less of age
ICU need: 20% need ICU care with 15% mortality
Fever: In all (no fever no corona)
Cough: 75% cases
Weakness or muscle ache: 50%^
Shortness of breath: 50%
TLC: low
Liver transaminase levels: raised
Case fatality: 2% [Dr John Nicholls, University of Hong Kong} China is only reporting those who come for test, stricter guidelines, actual mortality may be 0.8%-1% like outside China
Healthcare Workers: In Hong Kong with SARS there was a lot of infection of healthcare workers as they are close and doing invasive procedures. But this time around there is not much evidence of the healthcare workers getting sick or dying (unless China is not reporting it) so this may suggest that it is not being spread by close aerosol contact but more by the fecal-oral route or with droplets. So, it may not be as contagious within hospitals. Makeshift hospitals will help.
Lab precautions: BSL 2 ( 3 for viral culture labs)
Human to human contact period: Requires prolonged contact ( possibly ten minutes or more) within three to six feet

Travel restrictions
Travel preferable seat: Choosing a window seat and staying lowers the risk
Travel advisory:  Level 1 in all countries (Exercise normal standard hygiene precautions), Level 2 in all  affected countries and states including Kerala ( Exercise a high degree of caution), Level 3 in all countries with secondary cases (Reconsider your need to travel) done by India and Level 4 ( Do not travel) done by US. Hong Kong has imposed 14 days quarantine on people arriving from china. The Karnataka government has ordered that anybody arriving from the 23 coronavirus affected countries must stay in isolation at home for 28 days. The home isolation requirement is irrespective of the virus symptoms. To date, 72 countries are implementing travel restrictions.
Travel and trade restrictions: WHO says no to countries
Leave china all together: UK, condemned by many countries
Entry to India not allowed: foreigners who went to China on or after January 15
Visas Suspended: All visas issued to Chinese nationals before February 5 (not applicable to aircrew)
Flight suspended: IndiGo and Air India have suspended all of their flights between the two countries. SpiceJet continues to fly on Delhi-Hong Kong route.

Mass Quarantine May Spark Irrational Fear, Anxiety, Stigma

Evacuation

Many countries including Tokyo, Japan, India have evacuated their citizens.


Case fatality
Current Coronavirus 2%
MERS 34% (2012, killed 858 people out of the 2,494 infected)
SARS 10% (Nov. 2002 - Jul. 2003, originated from Beijing, spread to 29 countries, with 8,096 people infected and 774 deaths) 
Ebola 50%,
Smallpox 30-40%
Measles 10-15% developing countries
Polio 2-5% children and 15-30% adults
Diphtheria 5-10%
Whooping cough 4% infants < 1yr, 1% children < 4 years
Swine flu < 0.1-4 %
Seasonal flu 0.01%.
Current virus in Wuhan 4.9%.
Current virus in Hubei Province 3.1%.
Current virus in Nationwide 2.1%.
Current virus in other provinces 0.16%.
Number of flu deaths every year: 290,000 to 650,000 (795 to 1,781 deaths per day)

Lab tests
There are two ways to detect a virus: through the genetic material DNA or RNA or to detect the protein of the virus. The rapid tests look at the protein. It takes 8-12 weeks to make commercial antibodies. So right now, for the diagnostics tests they are using PCR which give you a turnaround in 1-2 hours.

Treatment
No proven antiviral treatment.
With SARS, in 6 months the virus was gone and it never came back.
Pharmaceutical companies may not spend millions and millions to develop a vaccine for something which may never come back.
Secondary infection, E Coli, are most likely the cause of deaths of the patients in the Philippines and HK.
A combination of lopinavir and ritonavir showed promise in lab in SARS
Combination of lopinavir, ritonavir and recombinant interferon beta-1b was tried in MERS
Chloroquine had potent antiviral activity against the SARS-CoV, has been shown to have similar activity against HCoV-229E in cultured cells and against HCoV-OC43 both in cultured cells and in a mouse model.
Thailand: Oseltamivir along with lopinavir and ritonavir, both HIV drugs.
Experimental drug: Rrom Gilead Sciences Inc., called remdesevir (started on 6th Feb as a trial)
Russia and China drug: Arbidol, an antiviral drug used in Russia and China for treating influenza, could be combined with Darunavir, the anti-H.I.V. drug, for treating patients with the coronavirus. {the corona virus shares some similarity to HIV virus also)
PVP-I mouthwashes and gargles significantly reduce viral load in the oral cavity and the oropharynx. PVP-I has high potency for viricidal activity against hepatitis A and influenza, MERS and SARS
The Drug Controller General of India has approved the "restricted use" of a combination of drugs (Lopinavir and ritonavir) used widely for controlling HIV infection in public health emergency for treating those affected by novel coronavirus.
In SARS, people were put on long term steroids ending with immunosuppression and late complications and death. The current protocol is short term treatment.

Standard Respiratory droplets precautions
Self-quarantine if sick with flu like illness: 2 weeks
Adherence: Strict
Soap and water: Wash your hands often and  for at least 20 seconds.
Alcohol-based hand sanitizer: if soap and water is not available
Avoid touching:  Eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.
Avoid close contact:  (3-6 feet) with people who are sick with cough or breathlessness
Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.
Surgical 3 layered Masks: For patients
N 95 Masks: For health care providers and close contacts

Common Myths

1.     People receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the new coronavirus as the virus does not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages.

2.     There is no evidence that companion animals/pets such as dogs or cats can be infected with the new coronavirus. However, it is good to wash your hands with soap and water after contact with pets. To prevent transmission of common bacteria such as E. coli and Salmonella.

3.     Pneumococcal vaccine and Haemophilus influenza type B (Hib) vaccine, do not provide protection against the new coronavirus.

4.     Regularly rinsing the nose with saline does not protect people from infection with the new coronavirus or respiratory infections although it can help people recover more quickly from the common cold.

5.     There is no evidence that using mouthwash will protect you from infection with the new coronavirus although some brands or mouthwash can eliminate certain microbes for a few minutes in the saliva in your mouth.

6.     Garlic is a healthy food that may have some antimicrobial properties, however, there is no evidence that eating garlic protects people from the new coronavirus.

7.     Sesame oil does not kill the new coronavirus. Chemical disinfectants that can kill the 2019-nCoV on surfaces are bleach/chlorine-based disinfectants, either solvents, 75% ethanol, peracetic acid and chloroform. However, they have little or no impact on the virus if you put them on the skin or under your nose. It can even be dangerous to put these chemicals on your skin.

8.     People of all ages can be infected by the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Older people, and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus.  WHO advises people of all ages to take steps to protect themselves from the virus, for example by following good hand hygiene and good respiratory hygiene?

9.     Antibiotics do not work against viruses, only bacteria.  Hence antibiotics should not be used as a means of prevention or treatment of new coronavirus unless you suspect bacterial co-infection.

10. To date, there is no specific medicine recommended to prevent or treat the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

Trolls and conspiracy theories: Not validated and are fake news
1.     The virus is linked to Donald Trump, and US intelligence agencies or pharmaceutical companies are behind it.
2.     That eating snakes, wild animals or drinking bat soup cases corona
3.     Keep your throat moist, avoid spicy food and load up on vitamin C
4.     Avoiding cold or preserved food and drinks, such as ice cream and milkshakes, for "at least 90 days".
5.     Experts have been aware of the virus for years.
6.     The virus was part of China's "covert biological weapons programme" and may have leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
7.     Linked to the suspension of a researcher at Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory.
8.     China wants to kill 20,000 coronavirus patients is totally false. The site is linked to a sex website.

Role of CMAAO and other Medical Associations

Get prepared for containment, including active surveillance, early detection, isolation and case management, contact tracing and prevention of onward spread of the virus and to share full data with WHO.   All countries should emphasise on reducing human infection, prevention of secondary transmission and international spread. Intensify IEC activities.



Country,
Territory

Total Cases
Feb 11
Cases
Total
Deaths
Feb 11
Deaths

Total
Recovered
Total
Severe
China
44,649
+2,011
1,113
+97
4,730
8,230
Japan
202
+41
4
Hong Kong
49
+7
1
Singapore
47
+2
9
7
Thailand
33
+1
10
1
S. Korea
28
+1
4
Taiwan
18
1
Malaysia
18
3
Germany
16
+2
Australia
15
5
Vietnam
15
+1
6
USA
13
+1
3
France
11
1
Macao
10
1
U.A.E.
8
1
1
U.K.
8
1
Canada
7
1
Philippines
3
1
2
Italy
3
2
India
3
Russia
2
Spain
2
Finland
1
1
Cambodia
1
1
Sweden
1
Sri Lanka
1
1
Nepal
1
Belgium
1


Total Cases of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Date
Total
Cases
Change
in Total
Change in
Total (%)
Feb. 11
45,170
2,071
5%
Feb. 10
43,099
2,546
6%
Feb. 9
40,553
3,001
8%
Feb. 8
37,552
2,676
8%
Feb. 7
34,876
3,437
11%
Feb. 6
31,439
3,163
11%
Feb. 5
28,276
3,723
15%
Feb. 4
24,553
3,925
19%
Feb. 3
20,628
3,239
19%
Feb. 2
17,389
2,837
19%
Feb. 1
14,552
2,604
22%
Jan. 31
11,948
2,127
22%
Jan. 30
9,821
2,008
26%
Jan. 29
7,813
1,755
29%
Jan. 28
6,058
1,477
32%
Jan. 27
4,581
1,781
64%
Jan. 26
2,800
785
39%
Jan. 25
2,015
698
53%
Jan. 24
1,317
472
56%
Jan. 23
845
266
46%

Daily Cases of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Date
Daily
Cases
Change
in Daily
Change in
Daily (%)
Feb. 11
2,071
-475
-19%
Feb. 10
2,546
-455
-15%
Feb. 9
3,001
325
12%
Feb. 8
2,676
-761
-22%
Feb. 7
3,437
274
9%
Feb. 6
3,163
-560
-15%
Feb. 5
3,723
-202
-5%
Feb. 4
3,925
686
21%
Feb. 3
3,239
402
14%
Feb. 2
2,837
233
9%
Feb. 1
2,604
477
22%
Jan. 31
2,127
119
6%
Jan. 30
2,008
253
14%
Jan. 29
1,755
278
19%
Jan. 28
1,477
-304
-17%
Jan. 27
1,781
996
127%
Jan. 26
785
87
12%
Jan. 25
698
226
48%
Jan. 24
472
206
77%
Jan. 23
266
133
100%

Total Deaths of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Date
Total
Deaths
Change
in Total
Change in
Total (%)
Feb. 11
1,115
97
10%
Feb. 10
1,018
108
12%
Feb. 9
910
97
12%
Feb. 8
813
89
12%
Feb. 7
724
86
13%
Feb. 6
638
73
13%
Feb. 5
565
73
15%
Feb. 4
492
66
15%
Feb. 3
426
64
18%
Feb. 2
362
58
19%
Feb. 1
304
45
17%
Jan. 31
259
46
22%
Jan. 30
213
43
25%
Jan. 29
170
38
29%
Jan. 28
132
26
25%
Jan. 27
106
26
33%
Jan. 26
80
24
43%
Jan. 25
56
15
37%
Jan. 24
41
16
64%
Jan. 23
25
8
47%

Daily Deaths of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Date
Daily
Deaths
Change
in Daily
Change in
Daily (%)
Feb. 11
97
-11
-10%
Feb. 10
108
11
11%
Feb. 9
97
8
9%
Feb. 8
89
3
3%
Feb. 7
86
13
18%
Feb. 6
73
0
0%
Feb. 5
73
7
11%
Feb. 4
66
2
3%
Feb. 3
64
6
10%
Feb. 2
58
13
29%
Feb. 1
45
-1
-2%
Jan. 31
46
3
7%
Jan. 30
43
5
13%
Jan. 29
38
12
46%
Jan. 28
26
0
0%
Jan. 27
26
2
8%
Jan. 26
24
9
60%
Jan. 25
15
-1
-6%
Jan. 24
16
8
100%
Jan. 23
8
0
0%


CMAAO Suggestions so far
1.     7th January: CMAAO Alert: WHO to monitor China's mysterious pneumonia of unknown virus outbreak
2.      8th Jan: CMAAO warns Asian citizens travelling China over mystery pneumonia outbreak
3.      10th January: Editorial: Corona virus strain causing pneumonia in Wuhan, China, It’s a new strain of corona virus in the china pneumonia
4.      13th Jan: China Virus Outbreak Linked to Seafood Market
5.      15th Jan: First Case China Pneumonia Virus Found Outside China in Thailand
6.      17th Jan: WHO issues warning after 'mysterious' Chinese corona virus spreads to Japan
7.      17th Jan: India at threat of Corona. CMAAO urges travel advisory on coronavirus: http://www.drugtodayonline.com/medical-news/nation/10379-cmaao-urges-travel-advisory-on-coronavirus.html  (18th Indian govt issues travel advisory as China's mysterious 'Coronavirus' spread in other countries)
9.      18-20 Jan: Three countries CMAAO meet, also discussed Corona virus
10.  22nd Jan: Still not being declared to be a notifiable disease, N 95 to be included in the list of essential drugs and prise capped, Oseltamivir, should also be prise capped, air flights should have available air masks for all passengers, not declaring flu like symptoms while boarding or landing should be a punishable offence (23rd India advisory to airports)
11.  24th: Inter Ministerial Committee needs to be formed on Corona Virus (PMO took a meeting on 24th evening)
12.  25th Jan: Indian government should pay for Indians affected with the virus in China
13.  26 Jan: Need of National droplet Infection Control program, Policy to ban export of face masks, policy to evacuate Indians and neighbouring countries from China affected areas, Time to collaborate on Nosode therapy (Exports of masks banned on 31st January by Indian Government) Action:  [ Feb 1st: Ibrahim Mohamed Solih thanked India for the evacuation of seven Maldivian nationals from the coronavirus-hit Chinese city of Wuhan. India evacuated 647 people] [ on 30th India banned gloves, PEP and masks but on 8th lifted the ban on surgical masks/disposable masks and all gloves except NBR gloves. All other personal protection equipment, including N-95 and equipment accompanying masks and gloves shall remined banned.] 
14.  27th Jan: History of anti-fever drugs at airports should be taken
15.  28th Jan: Do research on Nosodes
16.  29th Jan: Closure of live markets all over the world, India should take a lead
17.  30th Jan: Paid flu leave, surgical mask at public places, N 95 for health care providers
18.  31st Jan: Respiratory hygiene advisory schools, Pan India task force to be made 
19.  1st Feb: Disaster Budget is the need of the hour
20.  3rd Feb: 100 crore budget for Corona virus; Private labs to be recognised; one dedicated corona National help line, MTNL BSNL to have a line of advisory in their bills, isolation wards to be single rooms or two beds separated with six feet distance, national insurance to cover cost of treatment,  Sea ports to have same precautions, prize caps for masks, and gloves, National droplet control program, clarification that import of goods is not risky And suspend AI flights to China and Hong Kong  [Feb 4 Air India on Tuesday suspended flight services to Hong Kong from Friday until March 28. Earlier, Air India had cancelled its flight to Shanghai from January 31 to February 14 and on 5th Feb the Ministry of Defence is setting up 10 new laboratories across the country, primarily to conduct research on viruses]
21.  4th Feb: Kerala travel advisory needed [The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare issued a fresh travel advisory on Monday urging people to refrain from visiting China]
22.  5th Feb: PM should talk about Corona in Man Ki Baat or a special address
23.  6th Feb: Time to have makeshift bed policy to tackle deaths in Kota, Muzaffarpur and Corona [Uttarakhand to set up two dedicated hospitals to tackle coronavirus : https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/uttarakhand-to-set-up-two-dedicated-hospitals-to-tackle-coronavirus/story-NYxBOw6XHTbugznTWa3CXK.html]
24.  7th Feb: IPC 269 should be applicable to corona virus
25.  8th Feb: teleconsultation should be allowed to flu and corona consultation