Swine flu kills 95 in north India since January 1: What does this mean?

1.       Swine flu causes fewer deaths than normal seasonal flu.

2.      Hong Kong Study of H1N1 (Between April and December 2009]

a.       Overall attack rate 10.7 percent.

b.      Case-hospitalization rate 0.47 to 0.87 % among people aged 5 to 59 years

c.        Case-ICU rate 7.9 cases per 100,000 infections in children aged 5 to 14 years

d.      Case-ICU rate 75 cases per 100,000 infections in adults aged 50 and 59 years

e.       Case-fatality rate 0.4 cases per 100,000 in children aged 5 to 14 years

f.       Case-fatality rate 26.5 cases per 100,000 in adults aged 50 to 59 years.

3.     Case fatality is 0.4 – 26.5 cases per 100,000. That means 10 deaths would occur if one lac people gets fly. For getting 95 deaths we need almost one crore people getting infected with flu. This again means 10% of the society suffering from flu or two patients per family. Either the figure 95 is wrong or the figure number of positives deaths is wrong.
4.   From 1^st Jan to 7^th Feb (flu season), in 38 days, 95 deaths means 2.5 deaths per day in flu season.  As per Economy Survey of Delhi in total 868 people died of pneumonia in 2006 (year average per day 2.4) and 879 in 2007 (year average per day 2.4).   This statistics is pre H1N1 era and will be true for seasonal flu.

5. 2.4 deaths year long would mean in the flu season the deaths will be much more. This proves the medical fact that swine flu cause fewer deaths than the seasonal flu. Then why panic? 

Padma Shri & Dr. BC Roy National Awardee, Dr. KK Aggarwal, President Heart Care Foundation of India & National Vice President Elect IMA.