Swine Flu: Messages of public health importance for the public

·         Fever with cough and cold is flu, unless proved otherwise.

·         No fever, no flu

·         In low risk patients (no pregnancy, not a newborn/elderly or no comorbidity), with no breathlessness, no testing, hospital admission and/or Tamiflu is required.

·         People with co-morbid conditions, pregnant women and the elderly should not ignore flu

·         No breathlessness, then only digital consultation to avoid crossinfection.

·         For the general public, simple surgical mask; for doctors, N95 mask

·         Wearing a mask is a must in registration counters

·         There should be separate line for labs/x-ray, with people wearing a mask.

·         Children suffering from flu should be allowed leave from school.

·         Office workers suffering from flu should be given paid holiday.

·         Flu patients should enter the doctor’s chamber wearing a mask.

·         In low risk patients, it does not matter, if it is swine flu or the common flu. Cough hygiene is same for both. Keep distance of 3 feet; hand wash with soap and water after coughing or sneezing, cover your nose or mouth with a tissue when coughing, promptly dispose used tissues; throw the used tissue in a waste basket and if you don't have a tissue, cough or sneeze into your upper sleeve, not your hands

·         Tamiflu is effective only if given in the first 48 hours unless you are a high risk patient. Even then, it only shortens the duration by one day.

·         Tamiflu is not given without testing, which costs around Rs. 4000/-. So if you are a low risk patient, why spend this amount?

Dr KK Aggarwal

Padma Shri Awardee

President Elect Confederation of Medical Associations in Asia and Oceania   (CMAAO)

Group Editor-in-Chief IJCP Publications

President Heart Care Foundation of India

Immediate Past National President IMA

Swine flu kills 95 in north India since January 1: What does this mean?

1.       Swine flu causes fewer deaths than normal seasonal flu.

2.      Hong Kong Study of H1N1 (Between April and December 2009]

a.       Overall attack rate 10.7 percent.

b.      Case-hospitalization rate 0.47 to 0.87 % among people aged 5 to 59 years

c.        Case-ICU rate 7.9 cases per 100,000 infections in children aged 5 to 14 years

d.      Case-ICU rate 75 cases per 100,000 infections in adults aged 50 and 59 years

e.       Case-fatality rate 0.4 cases per 100,000 in children aged 5 to 14 years

f.       Case-fatality rate 26.5 cases per 100,000 in adults aged 50 to 59 years.

3.     Case fatality is 0.4 – 26.5 cases per 100,000. That means 10 deaths would occur if one lac people gets fly. For getting 95 deaths we need almost one crore people getting infected with flu. This again means 10% of the society suffering from flu or two patients per family. Either the figure 95 is wrong or the figure number of positives deaths is wrong.
4.   From 1^st Jan to 7^th Feb (flu season), in 38 days, 95 deaths means 2.5 deaths per day in flu season.  As per Economy Survey of Delhi in total 868 people died of pneumonia in 2006 (year average per day 2.4) and 879 in 2007 (year average per day 2.4).   This statistics is pre H1N1 era and will be true for seasonal flu.

5. 2.4 deaths year long would mean in the flu season the deaths will be much more. This proves the medical fact that swine flu cause fewer deaths than the seasonal flu. Then why panic? 

Padma Shri & Dr. BC Roy National Awardee, Dr. KK Aggarwal, President Heart Care Foundation of India & National Vice President Elect IMA.

#Ask Dr KK Swine flu kills 95 in north India since January 1. Oh My God I a scared.

Dr KK: Do not panic about the deaths. 

Hong Kong Study: The overall attack rate of pandemic H1N1 influenza A between April and December 2009 was 10.7 percent. 

Case-hospitalization rates were 0.47 to 0.87 percent among individuals aged 5 to 59 years. 

Case-ICU rates were 7.9 cases per 100,000 infections in children aged 5 to 14 years and 75 cases per 100,000 infections in adults aged 50 and 59 years. 

Case-fatality rates were 0.4 cases per 100,000 in children aged 5 to 14 years and 26.5 cases per 100,000 in adults aged 50 to 59 years.