COVID MODELS to KNOW FUTURE NUMBERS
Dr KK Aggarwal
President CMAAO, HCFI and Past national President
1. Case fatality rate: Number of deaths / Number of cases
5 pm 23rd March 14924/345289 = 4.32 %
2. Correct formula: CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death,. Which is 14 days)
Deaths on 23rd 14924
Cases 14 days before 10th March 114381
Correct CFR = 14924/ 114381= 13%
3. Deaths in symptomatic cases = 1-2%
Number of deaths X 100= expected number of symptomatic cases
4. Symptomatic cases x 50 = number of asymptomatic cases
5. Total expected number of cases
Italy scenario: 978 / million population (0.1% of the population)
China scenario: 56 / million population
Switzerland scenario: 1000/population
Average scenario 46 per million population
Average scenario India: 50 per million population
6. Expected Number of cases after seven days
Number of cases today x 2 (doubling time 7 days, normal spreader)
Number of cases x 6 (Doubling time 2days, super spreader)
7. Number of cases expected in the community: We can then look at the number of deaths occurring in a five-day period, and estimate the number of infections required to generate these deaths based on a 3.3 per cent fatality rate.
Finally, we can compare that to the number of new cases actually detected in the five-day period 17 days earlier to give us an estimate of the proportion of actual cases that were detected 17 days ago.
This can then give us an estimate of the total number of cases, confirmed and unconfirmed.
8. Lock down effect = reduction in cases after average incubation period ( 5 days)
9. Lock down effect in reduction in deaths: on day 14 ( time to death)
10. Requirements of ventilators on day 9: 3% of Number of new cases detected
11. Requirement of future oxygen on day 7: 15% of total cases detected today
12. Number of people which can be managed at home care: 80% of number of cases today Requirements of ventilators: 3% of Number of cases today
13. Requirement of oxygen beds today” 15% of total cases today
Match the curve to see where are you going
Dr KK Aggarwal
President CMAAO, HCFI and Past national President
1. Case fatality rate: Number of deaths / Number of cases
5 pm 23rd March 14924/345289 = 4.32 %
2. Correct formula: CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death,. Which is 14 days)
Deaths on 23rd 14924
Cases 14 days before 10th March 114381
Correct CFR = 14924/ 114381= 13%
3. Deaths in symptomatic cases = 1-2%
Number of deaths X 100= expected number of symptomatic cases
4. Symptomatic cases x 50 = number of asymptomatic cases
5. Total expected number of cases
Italy scenario: 978 / million population (0.1% of the population)
China scenario: 56 / million population
Switzerland scenario: 1000/population
Average scenario 46 per million population
Average scenario India: 50 per million population
6. Expected Number of cases after seven days
Number of cases today x 2 (doubling time 7 days, normal spreader)
Number of cases x 6 (Doubling time 2days, super spreader)
7. Number of cases expected in the community: We can then look at the number of deaths occurring in a five-day period, and estimate the number of infections required to generate these deaths based on a 3.3 per cent fatality rate.
Finally, we can compare that to the number of new cases actually detected in the five-day period 17 days earlier to give us an estimate of the proportion of actual cases that were detected 17 days ago.
This can then give us an estimate of the total number of cases, confirmed and unconfirmed.
8. Lock down effect = reduction in cases after average incubation period ( 5 days)
9. Lock down effect in reduction in deaths: on day 14 ( time to death)
10. Requirements of ventilators on day 9: 3% of Number of new cases detected
11. Requirement of future oxygen on day 7: 15% of total cases detected today
12. Number of people which can be managed at home care: 80% of number of cases today Requirements of ventilators: 3% of Number of cases today
13. Requirement of oxygen beds today” 15% of total cases today
Match the curve to see where are you going
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