Tuesday, February 25, 2020

China is getting the epidemic under control, but most of the world is unprepared
Will Iran be the next China
Dr KK Aggarwal
President CMAAO, HCFI and Past National President IMA
With 12 deaths and 61 cases in Iran, looks like that Iran government is hiding the true extent of the outbreak. If the virus kills about 2 percent of known victims, then the number of deaths can be multiplied by 50 to get a rough case estimate, which would mean Iran has 600 cases, or 10 times the official figure.
Infact the death rates outside china are 1% and in that case the number will be much higher in Iran. 
Cases in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates and Canada have been traced to Iran.
Ahmad Amiri Farahani, a lawmaker representing Qom, a popular pilgrimage destination where hundreds of Chinese students are currently studying, claimed on Monday that the virus had killed at least 50 there, reports New York times.  
“Every day 10 people are dying in Qom,” he said in Parliament, demanding a quarantine on his city. Health ministry officials vehemently disputed his claims. “I will resign if the numbers are even half or a quarter of this,” said Ahmad Harirchi, an adviser to the health minister.
Even if we agree the number is still 3 deaths per day. 
Iran borders are crossed each year by millions of religious pilgrims, migrant workers and others, is one of the biggest causes for worry in what threatens to become a global epidemic.
Italy update: The Italian government on the other side has introduced stringent internal travel restrictions, closing off the worst-hit areas in the northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto. About 50,000 people in 11 north Italian towns have been under lockdown since Friday night, with police patrolling the streets and fines being imposed on anyone caught entering or leaving outbreak areas.

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