Monday, February 17, 2020

Lockdown not the correct method: 9.6% trapped in the ship acquire COVID 19

Lockdown not the correct method: 9.6% trapped in the ship acquire COVID 19

Dr K K Aggarwal
President CMAAO, HCFI and Past national President IMA

17th Feb: 70 new cases onboard the cruise ship in Japan. Nearly 1 out of 10 passengers and crew (9.6%) have tested positive to the virus so far (355 cases out of 3,711 passengers and crew).  The 952-foot cruise ship also has the highest infection rate of the coronavirus anywhere in the world.
China has imposed unprecedented quarantines across Hubei, locking over 56 million people, in a bid to stop COVID 19 spreading.
Villages in Vietnam with 10,000 people close to the nation's capital are also placed under quarantine on 13th Feb after six cases of the deadly new coronavirus were discovered there. The locking down of the commune of Son Loi, about 40 kilometres from Hanoi, is the first mass quarantine outside of China since the virus emerged from a central Chinese city late last year.

If you lock down COVID 19 infected people with non infected people the transmission are will be around 10%. This will still be insufficient to start the herd immunity chain. The idea of lock down probably was to develop herd immunity in that lock down population but with R 0 value of 3 it looks impossible.

Over last four days the number of new cases in China are declining.  

1.     The people on lockdown are kept under a 14-day quarantine. If they are placed together and if anyone is diagnosed during that period, the quarantine will add another 14 days.
2.     In Chinas the lock down has not been lifted so far
3.     The longer you have several thousand people cohoused you will continue to propagate waves of infection.
4.     A better way to quarantine is to break up these people into smaller groups and quarantine them separately.
5.     Why quarantine children < 15 years when the virus is not risky for them.
6.     Why not separate elderly people with comorbid conditions at high risk of deaths and quarantine them separately in one to one or small groups.
7.     Ventilation system connects one room to the next. There has been previous concern that the coronavirus can spread through pipes
8.     Stress and anxiety are known to suppress the immune system, making people more susceptible to contracting the virus. 
9.     Why not quarantine them in open sunlight.

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